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It is Demi Moore’s time to sparkle. Now, after she won the Golden Globe Award for playing Elisabeth Sparkle in The Substance

, one might say that they already know that. Hey, isn’t Demi Moore celebrating already? Possibly imagining the confetti and glitter showers as she walks with her statue? Well, Moore could have more in store after January 8, especially as she may have secured an overwhelming advantage for Feb 23, which can lead to a statistical boost on March 2.  

70% 

That is the shrilling percentage of how many actresses have clenched both the SAG Award and the Academy Award for Best Actress

. But wait…

Demi Moore has not yet won the Screen Actor Guild Award for Best Actress, so how can we label her a favorite? And even if she does, we can just go back to last year when we backed Lily Gladstone to win the Oscar after her SAG win

. There are 7 other names (Kate Winslet in 2009 won the SAG Supporting Actress and went on to clinch the Oscar for Best Actress for The Reader

) as well. 

It’s important to remember that favorites change quickly in the build-up to the Academy Awards, with various voting bodies’ decisions emerging every weekend. The actors, who vote for the SAG and constitute the Academy’s biggest branch, would more or less repeat their pick throughout the award season. And even if they may change it, they need a strong reason for the flip. Say, for instance, a good speech to provide a narrative.

All five SAG nominees also had Golden Globe nominations, but only one could campaign. And boy, oh boy, Demi Moore’s speech would definitely have dazzled voters, giving them a good narrative. 

“Popcorn actress”

It screamed out ‘overdue narrative’ and a Hollywood success story and could have swayed voters, converting those who were somewhat in her corner ahead of the SAG nominations, to vote for her to lift The Actor and the OSCAR.  

Demi Moore can feel confident after her win and given how she beat three of the names (Karla Sofia Gascon, Mikey Madison and Cynthia Erivo) earlier this week. Pamela Anderson is the only name to cross over from the Globes’ Drama Category, but even she did not have the opportunity that The Substance

star had. But is it enough for Moore to escape from the pack? 

Though the Demi Moore hype train would be going strong, it is important to consider why she may not win as well. Actors usually vote for their co-stars, which does position a few of the nominees as strong competition for Demi Moore. The Last Showgirl

’s Pamela Anderson aside, the other names can be strong contenders for the award. Anderson’s chances are being cast aside as it is not receiving Best Film nominations, reducing the possibility of voters catching it. That is not to say she cannot do what La Vie En Rose

’s Marion Cotillard did.

Read More: Nikki Glaser’s Dig at Benny Blanco and Every Other Joke That Landed at Golden Globes 2025

The French actress, crucially, had the Globe win and a platform to campaign for the bigger prizes. The Substance

also is not guaranteed a picture nomination, but it currently is in a much better place than The Last Showgirl

. Advantage Moore here. 

Let us take a look at Karla Sofia Gascon’s chances. She will have the backing of Netflix with two possible goals in mind. 1. A win for Gascon will see her make history as the first openly transgender performer to clinch the SAG Award. 2. A win here will see Emilia Perez

sweep the actress categories at the SAG. I say this, as Zoe Saldana could be the favorite in the supporting actress category after Selena Gomez’s snub. Arianna Grande, reading the last sentence, may channel her Cat Valentine and say, “What’s that supposed to mean?”

Well, supporting actress aside, the reality is that Gascon is nominated for her leading role and actors may vote for her to overlap their choice in the Ensemble category. Speaking of ensemble support, Wicked

has wicked momentum. 

Cynthia Erivo plays the lead role in Wicked

, which has the most support from the Actor’s branch with 5 SAG nominations. Though Demi Moore already beat her at the Beverly Hilton Hotel, the voters differ greatly with the BAFTAs nominations (Jan 15) and results (Feb 16) indicating a trend. As of now, there is every possible chance that Erivo can condemn Moore to a wicked reality and let her first-ever acting award be the only acting award. 

Another star seeking her first is 25-year-old Mikey Madison. As and in Anora

, Madison was seen by many, including yours truly, as the favorite. Sean Baker’s film thrives because of her spunky turn and also has the actor’s support in a rather big way. Though Anora’s nominated cast for the SAG Ensemble has 6 names, there are no clear SAG snubs, with both Madison and Yura Borisov getting the expected nominations. Is this clear support for the film from the actors? It seems so as of now, but Moore’s speech with the “30-year”

messaging touches an emotional chord. ‘Mikey can have many more chances, so let us give it to Moore’, could be the thought.

Read More: The Substance (2024) Review: Body Horror, Comedy, and the MONSTROus Price of Perfection

A win for anyone not in these 5 would be unprecedented, with things looking clearer as the weeks go by. This week, it is all about Demi Moore, but will award season expect the balance to be respected?